HOLLYWOOD — If there has been one consistent surprise at the box office this year, it’s kids’ flicks.
Pre-release audience polling, called tracking, has a tough time divining the interests of the youngest moviegoers. As a result, studio executives usually rely on the interests of their parents as proxies.
But that’s a far from exact system, and this year it has resulted in a number of family films that beat expectations, including “Paul Blart: Mall Cop,” “Hotel for Dogs,” and “Hannah Montana.”
“G-Force” now has a place on that list. Disney’s effects-laden guinea pig action movie came in a surprising No. 1 for the weekend with a studio-estimated $32.2 million worth of ticket sales in the United States and Canada. An overwhelming 75 percent of moviegoers were families.
Studio executives who closely follow tracking had expected the movie to gross in the mid- to low $20 millions.
“We knew we had a really good-playing family movie, but when you’re competing against a film like ‘Harry Potter,’ you can never presume anything,” said Mark Zoradi, president of the Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Group.
Although critics had few nice words for the movie, audiences were pleased, giving the movie an average grade of B-plus, according to market research firm CinemaScore. That presages a healthy box-office run that could see it ultimately earning more than $100 million.
“G-Force” was helped in its surprising No. 1 finish by the 43 percent of its theaters that played the movie in digital 3-D, where ticket prices typically are $2 to $3 higher. It also benefited from a surprisingly large drop for “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince.”
The sixth film in Warner Bros.’ series based on the best-selling books declined 61.5 percent. 2007’s “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix,” which also opened on a Wednesday in July, fell 57.8 percent on its second weekend.
As of Sunday, the total domestic gross for “Half-Blood Prince” was $221.8 million. Accounting for the 9 percent rise in ticket prices over the last two years, that puts it about $5 million behind “Order of the Phoenix” at the same point.
The new movie does have one disadvantage: It’s playing at only four Imax locations, whereas “Order of the Phoenix” was on 91. The large-size screens carry higher ticket prices and tend to lose business at a slow pace.
Warner Bros. domestic distribution president Dan Fellman said that if Imax grosses were stripped from both pictures, “Half-Blood Prince” and “Order of the Phoenix” would have had virtually identical second-weekend drops.
The real test for the new “Potter” movie will come this Wednesday when it takes over 162 Imax screens now playing “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” If interest has stayed constant, its ticket sales should accelerate and at least match those of “Order of the Phoenix,” including inflation.
Even if “Potter” -mania is starting to fade state-side, however, Warner Bros. need hardly worry. “Half-Blood Prince” continues to perform phenomenally well overseas, where it has earned $405.3 million, bringing the worldwide total to $627.2 million. The movie cost $250 million to produce and about $155 million to market and distribute. Since studios keep about half their films’ ticket sales, Warner Bros. will likely break even on the theatrical run of “Half-Blood Prince” and profit handsomely on DVD and in other markets.
Sony Pictures’ romantic comedy “The Ugly Truth” overcame withering reviews to open with a solid $27 million and a CinemaScore of A-minus from audiences, who didn’t seem to agree with critics’ complaints about its portrayal of women.
There was little interest in the weekend’s third new movie, “Orphan,” which Warner Bros. distributed for Dark Castle Entertainment. The low-budget horror flick earned $12.8 million.
Underneath all the wide releases, however, 2009’s first indie hit appears to be brewing. “(500) Days of Summer” earned $1.6 million at 85 theaters on its second weekend, bringing its total to $3 million. That’s a strong figure for such a small number of locations and puts the romantic comedy in an extremely good position as Fox Searchlight expands it to more than 300 theaters Friday and about 1,000 the next weekend.
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